The Arakan Army is close to establishing local sovereignty in Rakhine province.
This piece is republished from Asia Democracy Chronicles. Photo credit: AA Infodesk via Asia Democracy Chronicles.
No one paid it much attention just a decade ago, while people from its homeland, Myanmar’s western state of Rakhine, had trouble believing that it could someday help them have more control over their region’s resources.
Now, though, Myanmar’s junta and even China, India, and Bangladesh are casting wary eyes on the Arakan Army (AA) as it gains control of more areas – mostly in Rakhine, but also in other regions. Many are also keen to see what it will do next, following AA leader Maj. Gen. Twan Mrat Naing’s recent announcement that there will be “a big change” this year.
In truth, AA – one of Myanmar’s ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the armed wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA) – has already done a lot in the last few years. Some political observers say that what AA has achieved so far is already greater than what other EAOs have gained in last 70 years in their respective fights for autonomy and self-determination.
AA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) that has made considerable headway in its fight against the Myanmar junta since late 2023. AA, however, has stood out with the massive gains it has made in its home state, where it now controls areas that host multi-million-dollar projects financed separately by China and India, as well as those bordering India and Bangladesh.
According to AA, 14 out of 17 townships from north to south Rakhine are currently under it, along with a township in Chin State.
Some of the areas now under AA are crucial to the Myanmar armed forces, locally known as the ‘Tatmadaw.’ These include Myanmar’s 270 km-long border with Bangladesh in northern Rakhine, which fell into AA’s hands after the capture of the last remaining Border Guard Police, Battalion No. 5, last Dec. 8 in Maungdaw Township.
AA said that more than 450 Tatmadaw soldiers died in the siege, while it arrested hundreds more Tatmadaw personnel, among them Brigadier General Thurein Tun.
In southern Rakhine, AA overran Thandwe airport and the entire Thandwe region, including Ngapali Beach, a tourist destination with luxury hotels.
But its most significant military achievement yet is its capture of the military’s Western Command headquarters in Ann Township last Dec. 20 — the second in the junta’s 14 commands to fall after the Northeastern Command in northern Shan State in August 2024. AA also seized more than 30 military bases in Ann, including several battalion headquarters.
By Dec. 29, AA was announcing that it was ready to resolve conflicts through political means with the junta. Some observers believe that AA was sending a signal not only to the junta, but also to China and other political players such as the parallel National Unity Government (NUG), as well as the international community, that it will not be backing down from turning the ‘Arakan Dream’ into reality.
An autonomous Rakhine
That dream is for Rakhine to become a confederate state, or one that is sovereign and wields more power than the central government. This is why in its announcement saying that it was ready for a political solution, AA also said that it welcomes foreign investments in Rakhine, and will ensure the safety of individuals involved in investments, including security for businesses, projects and investors.
Moreover, it expressed willingness to cooperate with investing companies and work together for mutual benefit, ensuring the continuation of foreign investments and projects in the region.
“After AA declared its Arakan Dream, it launched a brutal fight against the Tatmadaw to liberate the Rakhine State,” said Zaw Tun, an ethnic Arakanese analyst and researcher from Mrauk-U, an ancient city in Rakhine.
“Its confederation dream could come true,” he added. “The AA vows to retake its lost motherland and regain sovereignty.”
With an area covering nearly 37,000 kilometers on Myanmar’s western coast, the state once known as Arakan is rich in natural resources, the foremost of which are oil and natural gas that have for years earned billions of dollars for the central government.
In 2022 alone, the junta sold more than US$1.43 billion of Rakhine’s natural gas to China.
Yet Rakhine has perennially been among Myanmar’s most underdeveloped and poorest states. Even before the 2021 coup, Rakhine did not also expect to benefit from the massive projects China and India have there.
This is most probably among the reasons why AA wants Rakhine to become a confederate state. So far, though, it remains convinced that continuing its armed struggle is essential in reaching its goal.
According to some media reports, Chinese-brokered talks were held in China last December where the AA and its Three Brotherhood Alliance partners Ta’aung National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Kokang rebel Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) met separately with Chinese and Myanmar junta officials.
Yet while the talks were ongoing, AA continued to fight the Tatmadaw in Rakhine and elsewhere. As of last January, fighting had intensified near the border between Rakhine State and Bago Region as the AA and its allied forces attacked a military outpost in Taungup Township. In early February, it reported seizing a military defense post in Magwe Region.
Growing an army
In the past, AA’s leaders and representatives would often be seated in the back at peace talks held between the Tatmadaw and EAOs. Few journalists bothered to interview the AA at these events, with most ignoring the small group.
AA was founded in 2009 with a handful of Arakanese without sufficient weapons. At the time and even a few years after, no one thought that tourist guide turned AA leader Twan Mrat Naing would be able to transform his group of 26 young Arakanese into one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armies.
Then again, he accomplished this with the support of the Kachin Independent Army (KIA). From the Thai-Myanmar border, AA moved its base to KIA’s headquarters in Laiza, bordering China’s Yunnan Province, where it received military training, weapons, and supplies from the more experienced EAO.
By April 2019, AA leaders and representatives were occupying front seats at an event celebrating the 30th anniversary of a ceasefire agreement between the formidable United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Tatmadaw. Today AA says that it has some 40,000 personnel, but the number is actually higher, say some observers.
Yet while it has gained support from people in Rakhine and elsewhere, AA has not been without controversies. Just this January, it was forced to address a complaint raised by the non-profit Fortify Rights on the killing of two captive soldiers by AA personnel.
In a press conference AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha said that the AA soldiers “were unable to control their anger” and committed the crimes in retaliation for junta troops arresting, torturing, and killing their family members. He said that the perpetrators were punished.
“We have laws, we have courts, we have judicial procedures, so we can successfully prosecute and bring to justice all crimes committed in Arakan State,” said Khaing Thu Kha.
AA has also been accused of atrocities and abuses against the Rohingya, an ethnic group that calls Rakhine home but has been a constant target of discrimination. AA leader Twan Mrat Naing has said in previous interviews that AA treats all communities in Rakhine State, including the Rohingya, equally and protects their rights regardless of race, religion, or ethnicity.
AA repeated this in response to Rohingya-focused queries sent to it last year by the Geneva-based publication New Humanitarian. But it also highlighted what it said were activities of the Tatmadaw and “extremist” Rohingya armed groups “who have always posed barriers on the road to peaceful and cohesive Arakan in the future.”
AA away from battle
These days, AA could well be planning a major military push to enable it to finally gain full control of Rakhine. According to political analyst Zaw Tun, AA does not believe in revolutions lasting too long.
Resolving the complex Rohingya issue will likely be among the major challenges for the AA/ULA in fulfilling its Arakan Dream. So, too, would be rebuilding Rakhine’s economy that has been ravaged by the conflict and worsened some more by blockades, as well as tempering what may be too-high expectations of the state’s three million people.
But at least AA/ULA will no longer be a newcomer in governance, with political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing pointing out that it has had “first-hand experience,” having run “administrative and judiciary services in several parts of Rakhine State, even before the 2021 coup.”
“The AA has also sought to shore up its administrative weaknesses by training personnel and establishing a public administration and policy school run mainly by foreign-educated Rakhine individuals,” Kyaw Hsan Hlaing wrote in a November 2024 article for Fulcrum, a publication of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “Courses include public policy, English, leadership, and politics.”
Unsurprisingly, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has been less than impressed with AA’s accomplishments, even though the Tatmadaw had once struck an informal ceasefire with it in 2020. During Rakhine Day last Dec. 15, he called AA, TNLA, and MNDAA terrorist organizations that had worsened the socio-economic conditions of the country’s ethnic peoples.
In response, AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha said that the junta labeling the AA as a terrorist group was “an act of cowards.”
He added, “The people are aware of who the real terrorists are.”
